Reform UK Could Win Four of Cumbria’s Five Seats in New Poll
Reform UK could win four of Cumbria’s five parliamentary seats if a general election were held now, according to new constituency-level polling reported by the News & Star.
The projection suggests Labour could lose every seat it currently holds across the county, including Barrow and Furness, Carlisle, Penrith and Solway, and Whitehaven and Workington.
Westmorland and Lonsdale is predicted to remain in Liberal Democrat hands.
Which Cumbrian seats could Reform win?
The forecast reportedly puts Reform UK ahead in:
- Barrow in Furness
- Carlisle
- Penrith and Solway
- Whitehaven and Workington
All four constituencies were won by Labour at the 2024 general election.
Westmorland and Lonsdale, represented by Liberal Democrat MP Tim Farron, is the only fully Cumbrian constituency not predicted to be won by Reform.
Barrow in Furness predicted to change hands
Michelle Scrogham won Barrow for Labour in 2024 with 18,537 votes.
She finished 5,324 votes ahead of the Conservative candidate, while Reform came third with 7,035 votes.
However, current Electoral Calculus modelling now lists the constituency as a possible Reform gain. It places Reform on a predicted vote share of 30.2%, compared with 26.3% for Labour and 22% for the Conservatives.
The model currently gives Reform a 55% chance of taking the seat, although this remains a forecast rather than an election result.
Reform also ahead in Carlisle and Penrith
Carlisle was won by Labour’s Julie Minns in 2024. She secured a majority of 5,200 votes over the Conservatives, while Reform finished third.
Electoral Calculus currently predicts Reform could receive 32.2% of the vote in Carlisle, ahead of Labour on 23.6%. It gives the party a 68% chance of winning the constituency.
Penrith and Solway is also listed as a potential Reform gain. Labour won the seat in 2024 with a majority of 5,257 votes.
Current modelling places Reform on 29.8%, with Labour on 25.7% and the Conservatives on 21.2%.
Whitehaven and Workington could be a close contest
Whitehaven and Workington was Labour’s strongest result among Cumbria’s five seats at the last general election.
Josh MacAlister won with 22,173 votes, giving him a majority of 13,286 over Reform.
Some new projections reportedly suggest Reform could now take the seat. However, models do not all agree on the result.
Electoral Calculus currently predicts a narrow Labour hold, placing Labour on 41.5% and Reform on 39.2%. It gives Labour a 54% chance of winning and Reform a 46% chance.
This makes Whitehaven and Workington one of the most uncertain seats in the county under current polling.
Tim Farron predicted to retain Westmorland seat
Westmorland and Lonsdale remains the clear exception to the wider Cumbrian trend.
Tim Farron retained the constituency for the Liberal Democrats in 2024 with 31,061 votes and a majority of more than 21,000.
Electoral Calculus predicts the Liberal Democrats would remain ahead with 39.6% of the vote. Reform is projected to finish second on 21.4%, with the Conservatives on 18%.
The model gives the Liberal Democrats a 90% chance of keeping the seat.
What does the poll mean?
The figures are projections based on polling, previous election results and estimates of how national changes in support could affect individual constituencies.
They do not mean that Reform is guaranteed to win four seats. Local candidates, campaigning, turnout and changes in public opinion before the next general election could all affect the final results.
Different polling models may also produce different forecasts. This is particularly clear in Whitehaven and Workington, where some projections show a Reform gain while others continue to predict a narrow Labour victory.
Nationally, Electoral Calculus currently predicts Reform would become the largest party with 208 seats but would remain 118 seats short of an overall parliamentary majority.
